Hello! I started my Derby Preview in August with "We will lose tomorrow"- and I think that statement is equally applicable tomorrow, but the one thing I do want to see us do is go for it tomorrow. With the fixtures this weekend of; Blackpool v Wigan, Bolton v Brighton and Rotherham v Millwall we will be losing ground in the Relegation Battle this weekend- so I think we should at least have a go and give the crowd something to be excited about, in the scenario we find ourselves in this weekend I'd rather we go for it and lose 5-3 than lose 2-0 and look abject (yet again).
The absolute worst case scenario come 5pm on Saturday is we're 2 Points above the Relegation Zone- while it would mean dropping down another place; Rotherham beating Millwall is imperative for us this weekend; both in terms of confidence for Millwall and the gap between us and Millwall. I think its accepted that Blackpool are down, but I think even Blackpool fans had acknowledged that before a ball was kicked. I don't want to rule out Wigan, just because they do have the players to get them out of the mess- and the last time I ruled someone as down before they were was Sunderland- and we all know how that turned out. On that basis there's two places still up for grabs with regard to Relegation and I'd say anyone from Charlton (16th) downwards could still realistically be relegated in those two positions. As we've seen with Leeds however, all it takes a mini win-streak and they're relatively safe after staring into the abyss less than a month ago.
With the team news thats came in from Kit today I think tomorrows game would be the perfect opportunity to implement the 4-4-1-1 I've been harping on about- specifically here (http://t.co/Jthqz0t9n0). So I'll be doing two separate line-ups today- with the other being the Diamond.
Of course Bettinelli will continue in goal, it is ludicrous for people to start getting on his back- yes he's had a few dodgy moments in the last month or so, but he's also saved us more times than I can count- I even saw someone on FriendsOfFulham suggesting we started Kiraly, which is the definition of insanity.
Jazz Richards' Loan has been extended until the End of the Season, and I can't see the statistic of us not winning a game since he was signed change anytime soon. However, with the extension Kit's put his flag in the ground with regard to our first choice Right-Back in my opinion- even with Hoogland coming back I think (or rather hope) he's going to be considered as a midfielder, that is of course at the expense of Grimmer; who I'm hoping we Loan Out for the rest of the season, because we do have Hoogland who can deputise at Right-Back should Richards get injured- and we could of course recall Grimmer like we did in November. As I've said with Kit, I've repeatedly put my flag in the ground with regard to Bodurov and where I see his position in the team- its a toss up between Burn, Hutchinson and Casasola for the other Centre-Back spot; on balance I'd keep Hutchinson- the Brighton game in November where we kept Darren Bent quiet for the most part is what I have in mind with regard to this selection, even though he scored it was deflected. That said the team surrounding Bent is a lot better this time around- so we'll be a lot more stretched. I think Kit sees Sean Kavanagh as a Midfielder, because should he see him as a Left-Back he'd have brought him on for Stafylidis on Tuesday.
Tim Hoogland must surely be on the precipice of a First Team return, he was on the bench for Tuesdays game and as I've said a few times before he played 90 Minutes against Chelsea last Thursday. Parker and Kacaniklic were "rested" for Tuesdays game so I would expect both to come back in to the Starting Eleven tomorrow. In the 4-4-1-1 Scenario I'd have Kacaniklic playing as the Right-Midfielder; with Parker and Hoogland as the Central-Midfielders and then playing Sean Kavanagh as the Left-Midfielder. That is at the expense of Tunnicliffe and Christensen, both of whom have been nowhere near good enough this Calendar Year- but as I've already said with regard to Christensen, I blame Kit for his dip in form. Should Hoogland not be fit enough yet, Christensen would be the one to come in without a doubt. I think Sean Kavanagh in the Left-Midfielder Role could be a masterstroke, he's shown he's good from an attacking perspective- but he is a Left-Back by trade and I think him playing could also get the best out of Stafylidis because he'll provide some extra cover. In the Diamond Formation I'd take out Kavanagh, and push Parker a bit further forward with Hoogland in the DM Role- because Parker is used to sitting in front of the Back Four, so he'll also be able to cover Stafylidis. The "must start" player is Bryan Ruiz, we can't even use the excuse that he isn't committed anymore because he completed 8 Tackles on Tuesday, which was the most out of anybody in the team- if it were up to me he'd be playing behind the Striker in a 4-4-1-1, but of course in the Diamond he'd be in the #10 Role.
With Rodallega's injury, the Striking situation is pretty straightforward- McCormack despite his recent dip in form will of course be in the Starting Eleven; so in the 4-4-1-1 that's that. In the Diamond McCormack needs a Partner; it came out in Steve Cotterill's Press Conference in the week that Matt Smith is back with us- as far as I can work out he isn't eligible for this game though, so whether or not Matt Smith is the answer is a moot point for this game. This leaves us with Woodrow and Dembele as seemingly our only options- even though I'd hope Kit has been looking at Adam Taggart as being worthy of at least a spot on the Bench given his Form in the U21s. It's pretty straightforward though with Woodrow coming in, in my opinion- although I wouldn't mind seeing us go a bit bolder playing Kacaniklic Up-Front as he has done on occasion in different teams, but realistically I can't see that happening.
Team(s) for Derby
(1) 4-4-1-1
Bettinelli
Richards, Hutchinson, Bodurov, Stafylidis
Kacaniklic, Hoogland, Parker, Kavanagh
Bryan
McCormack
(2) Diamond
Bettinelli
Richards, Hutchinson, Bodurov, Stafylidis
Kacaniklic, Hoogland, Parker
Bryan
McCormack Woodrow
I honestly won't mind if we lose tomorrow, what I will mind is if we look completely gutless as we did against Wolves and largely against Millwall; and I really want to see us go for it tomorrow- regardless of the result, because even though Rotherham did blow it a few weeks ago against Derby they showed there is definitely some defensive frailties in the Derby team, and we'll need to really go at them to try and exploit it.
We've already played Derby twice this season, and lost 5-1 and 5-2; so this game tomorrow is a nailed on 5-3.
Thanks for reading as always, as I've repeatedly said- I won't mind if we lose tomorrow; but if we really have a go at Derby tomorrow and go for it, and look like a committed team I'll be walking back through Bishop's Park happy. Anyway, this is the Championship- anyone can beat anyone- right? So lets hope we get a February Miracle and get a really welcome result tomorrow.
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