Thursday 1 August 2019

Fulham: 19/20 Season Preview

As we all get ready for the new season to kick off tomorrow, it's time for another Fulham Season Preview. I didn't do one of these last year, for the very simple reason that the day I would have posted it on was Deadline Day. Generally speaking I like to think of these Previews as an extension of my Summer Window Previews I do at the end of the previous season. So I didn't see much point in posting one with what would have been hours left of the Transfer Window.

With these previews I try and cover all things Fulham related that have happened over the summer, as well as what I'm expecting to see over the next 10 months. With that said, there's only one place to start.

The Transfer Window
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Ivan Cavaleiro (Wolves, Loan)
Cavaleiro was on my "long-list" for my Summer Window Preview, but I didn't include him for the simple fact that I thought he'd be too expensive for us this summer. So I suppose I was right in the sense that we've gone for an initial loan with an option to buy, presumably so the big transfer fee is further away from our "100m summer" in the three year FFP cycle.

This signing doesn't really need much discussion. We know how good Cavaleiro can be in the Championship, and with the players we've lost (and could still lose) we needed to add genuine quality either side of Aleksandar Mitrovic- and we've definitely added quality with Cavaleiro. It sounds like Tony Khan really went for this one as well and worked on it for a long time, so full credit to him for getting it done.

Martell Taylor-Crossdale (Chelsea)
It's worth mentioning Taylor-Crossdale, just because I'd be surprised if he didn't get a look in for the first team next season- even if it's just in the Cups. That's just an assumption, but it's based on the fact that he turned Hoffenheim down to join us- combined with the fact that he openly spoke about a pathway into the first team when he signed.

In fact, I'd actually argue Taylor-Crossdale has a case for being our second choice Striker. Because I personally see Kamara as a Right-Winger and Rui Fonte as a #10. While that doesn't mean I'm expecting to see Taylor-Crossdale in the matchday squad for Barnsley- I do think he'll be making some appearances as long as he impresses in the 21s.

Anthony Knockaert (Brighton, Loan)
This signing confirmed one thing to me. I have no idea what an "ambitious" signing is for Fulham these days (more later). Last summer, even for how badly it turned out, players like Seri weren't even on my radar as potential signings. Similarly, I didn't even see Knockaert as a potentially ambitious option when I was planning my Summer Window Preview. I was looking at relatively cheap options like Darwin Machis (who to be fair had a decent Copa America) and we turn around and sign someone who played thirty games in the Premier League last season.

While no signing is a guarantee of success, with Knockaert and Cavaleiro playing either side of Mitrovic we should have an absolutely lethal front three once they get used to playing together and everything "clicks". Of course having lethal forwards isn't a guarantee of success as we perfectly showed the season we had McCormack and Dembele up-front and finished 20th in the Championship.

Outs
I must say I expected a few more names in this section. As usual I'll only talk about the players who had first team minutes for us last season.

Jean-Michael Seri (Galatasaray, Loan)
I was surprised by this, just because with the greatest of respect I thought Seri could do better than Galatasaray. Although with that said he didn't exactly rip any trees up for us, and then had a very underwhelming AFCON- so maybe he couldn't.

I said it in my Summer Window Preview, Seri is by no means a bad player- he just didn't "fit" at Fulham. Especially when things started to fall apart basically from September onwards and it became clear we weren't a Premier League standard team. I'm interested to see how he gets on with Galatasaray, it's by no means a bad move for him given they're going straight into the Group Stages of the Champions League- it's just up to Seri to get his Nice form back and prove himself all over again.

Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (Villarreal, Loan)
This is the one that annoyed me. All of the noises coming out of the club over the summer indicated we were planning for next season with Zambo as part of the squad. From Tony Khan's podcast interview to the fact he was included in the kit release pictures (and as of writing this he's still in the header photo for the Fulham Twitter page). So to see Zambo suddenly depart pretty much on the eve of when he was due back in after AFCON was very frustrating.

I can only assume his agent and/or him started to make some noise in regard to wanting a move, because I don't see why we would've let him go- especially on loan otherwise. My hope is the option to buy is a big one, if not on par with what we spent on him at least close to. Because the potential is 100% there with him, and if he has a big season for Villarreal he'd suddenly look like he's worth what we spent on him.

The one thing that does have to be said about the loans of Zambo and Seri is to the best of my knowledge it's actually better for us in an FFP sense for us to have loaned them out rather than sell them at a loss this summer. The fact we still own them means we're still paying however much a year in amortisation on the FFP balance sheet, whereas if we sold them at a loss (which we would have done) we'd have taken a massive loss all at once and that in turn could have impacted how much we can spend this summer.

Harvey Elliott (Liverpool)
As I said, I'll talk about the players who appeared in the first team last season- as a result the most recent departure to talk about is Harvey Elliott going to Liverpool. We don't know how much we've got for Elliott yet, but I'd personally be content with anything above 4 million for him.

It's hard to "miss" Elliott, given he played a total of 18 minutes in the Premier League last season- and those minutes were most likely given to him to boost a potential tribunal fee. I didn't expect him to play a big role (if any) for us next season if he did stay anyway- so I'm happy to take the money for him and hope it funds a player or two that can play a part for us next season. Which brings me on nicely to the next section of this blog.

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Potential Transfers
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Josh Onomah (Spurs)
The most concrete link we seemingly have at the moment is Josh Onomah, for the simple fact that he was spotted at the West Ham game. This goes back to what I briefly talked about in the Summer Window Preview about Matt O'Riley and his agent, because he'd pretty much be coming in as a back-up to Tom Cairney. I don't see him as capable of playing the Johansen role in the 4-3-3 simply put, and frankly I think this would be a bit of a pointless signing if it were to happen because I'd rather use Rui Fonte as the back-up in that #10 role if O'Riley isn't an option for off the pitch reasons.

Although with that said, you'd expect Scott Parker and Matt Wells to know (or know a lot about) Onomah from their time at Spurs- so if they see a role for him next season you can only trust them however underwhelming the signing might appear.

Harry Arter (Bournemouth)
The other concrete(ish) link we have at the moment is Harry Arter, which is a rumour that has been bubbling all summer. Presumably at least in part because of the family link between Arter and Scott Parker.

To me it's quite simple with Arter. Do I think he could do a job for us next season? Yes. Do I think there's better, younger options out there? Yes (more later). With that said, if Parker wants Arter then as already said you have to back him given he's the one picking the team.

I do find it a bit funny that there's a bit of a cross-section of people who don't want Arter who were also having digs at Tony Khan for not letting Jokanovic make his own signings. Because Arter is 100% a Parker driven move, not just because of the family link, but because it would also go against one of Tony Khan's main transfer policies of not signing anyone over the age of 28 unless they were a big upgrade which I'm not sure Arter would be.

As far as actual links go to the best of my knowledge that's it. There's been a few names mentioned, but I can't see anything coming from them. So we're now moving into "my" shopping list for the rest of the transfer window. Quite simply these are names that I believe would strengthen the areas of the squad that need strengthening before the transfer window slams shut next week.

Daniel Ayala (Boro)
We need to sign a Centre-Back. It really is a "need" as well, because as Mawson limping off against West Ham showed we're dangerously short at Centre-Back. This squad isn't a million miles away from being able to challenge for the automatics despite some of the negativity I've seen over the last week since Zambo left. However, signing a quality Centre-Back is an absolute must if we want to achieve our stated goal.

The profile of Centre-Back we're looking at is pretty clear for all to see based on the names we've been linked with (Michael Hector, Pontus Jansson, Ezri Konsa). Championship experience and right-sided seem to be the order of the day- so as a result I thought I'd bring up an alternative option in Daniel Ayala.

I'd assume most people know all about Ayala, so it's not worth going into great detail about him. The interesting thing about Ayala to me is that he's going into the last year of his contract with Boro- and given Boro's two years of parachute payments are up, if we put in a decent bid I'd like to think Boro would accept. Ayala would be more of a stop-gap than a long-term solution, but I do think he'd do a good job for us were he to sign.

Dylan Bronn (Gent)
I made one big mistake in my Summer Window Preview in May. I didn't talk about any players from the Belgian League. I did have one in my "long-list" in Mbwana Samatta, but I thought he'd be too expensive. But still, that was my mistake. I was actually looking at three Belgian League Centre-Backs- Brandon Mechele (Club Brugge), Sebastien Dewaest (Genk) and of course Dylan Bronn. The reason I opted for Bronn is mainly down to age.

Dylan Bronn would be more of a long-term option than Ayala given his age and potential. Especially if we do sign Harry Arter we'd have a lot of players who are either 28+ or turning 28 next season. Which isn't a major concern, but it is something to keep an eye on. For the size of club we are, we need to look at signing players in the 21-24 age range to develop, increase in value and then sell on. It's the reality of the size of club we are, and at the moment the only players we have in that age bracket are Mitrovic and Kamara.

Bronn is a different Centre-Back to Ayala in pretty much every conceivable way, but I genuinely believe he'd be exceptional for us and partner Alfie Mawson (when fit) perfectly given he's very mobile but also defensively sound. Bronn would be quite expensive, but if we are going to spend big in one position in the next week, it absolutely needs to be Centre-Back.

Iyenoma Udogie (Hellas Verona)
This potential signing isn't a pressing one, I'd see it as more of a "bonus signing". I'd personally like to see us sign an actual Left-Back to cover Joe Bryan. We've got players who "can" play Left-Back like Odoi, Ream and Le Marchand, but we don't have an actual Left-Back.

Enter Iyenoma Udogie, who fits the bill perfectly for me. Udogie reminds me quite a lot of Ryan Sessegnon in that he's excelling at youth level, to the point where he played above his age bracket for Italy at the U19 Euros this summer- and he's scoring quite a few goals from Left-Back at youth level as well. Udogie is only 16 but then again so was Sessegnon when he broke through.

I remember us being linked with a Left-Back from Shamrock Rovers earlier in the summer, so it's clear we're in the market for a Left-Back for the 21s. I'd see Udogie as similar to the Taylor-Crossdale signing in that he'd start with the 21s, but then if he impresses he'd train with the First Team occasionally and get his chance to impress in Cup games and if Joe Bryan gets injured we could potentially look at playing him in the league next season.

That would be my selling point to Udogie when convincing him to sign, which was also seemingly our selling point to Taylor-Crossdale in that one of Scott Parker's "things" seemingly is a proper pathway to the first team for youth players.

Lennart Czyborra (Heracles)
I suggested signing Adrian Dalmau from Heracles in my Summer Window Preview, and we're taking another trip to Almelo in this blog. This time for a Left-Back.

Czyborra's further along in his development than Udogie, but you'd expect that given he's practically ancient at 20 years old. In fact, Czyborra had his breakthrough season for Heracles after signing from Schalke last summer. Czyborra's very quick, and given how it seems Parker wants us to play with "inside forwards" a lot of our width needs to come from the Full-Backs- which increases the need for pace in those areas. Whether Czyborra would be happy to join as cover after having his breakthrough season with Heracles is the only concern I'd have over whether we could sign him or not.

Uros Racic (Valencia)
We're approaching the end of a cycle with our current midfield with Cairney and Johansen turning 29 and McDonald turning 31 throughout the course of next season. McDonald especially is someone we need to look at replacing given how important the "anchor" is to the 4-3-3 system.

I see Racic as a natural successor to McDonald in the "anchor" position. He possesses the same physical and technical attributes that McDonald does, but he's also pretty much 10 years younger. Racic is seemingly surplus to requirements at Valencia as well, so I doubt it would take an extortionate fee in order to sign him- we could probably even try for a Loan + Option to Buy which would be better for FFP purposes.

We'll be starting the season up at Barnsley with Kevin McDonald, but when we start getting into "game every 3 or 4 days" territory I'd start bringing Racic in, and provided he performs I'd be wanting Racic to fully succeed McDonald as our starting defensive-mid by the end of the season. That's not saying anything against McDonald, but we need to phase out players like McDonald, Ream and Odoi sooner rather than later given their advancing age and it being clear after last season that they're nowhere near Premier League standard which of course is where we want to be.

Oriol Romeu (Southampton)
This was my "more later" I talked about in the Anthony Knockaert section. I genuinely don't know if this recommendation could be classed as "too ambitious". Romeu isn't an absolutely guaranteed starter for Southampton, and Southampton's wage bill is quite inflated- so if we went in for him with a similar deal to Knockaert of a Loan + Option to Buy and possibly a wage increase for Romeu- we might be able to convince him to join and Southampton to let him go.

Romeu would be more of the Knockaert variety in that he's turning 28 in September, but that is seemingly the market we're shopping in this summer in that we're not really looking beyond this upcoming season/our two years of parachute payments with the players we're bringing in. I'd still be very keen to sign Romeu of course. He'd be an absolutely top drawer signing for us and would help us get back to running midfields like we did in our two full seasons under Jokanovic.

James Lea Siliki (Rennes)
Moving on to the Stefan Johansen role in the 4-3-3, and introducing James Lea Siliki. Siliki's been on my "radar" for a while now, specifically after putting in one of the best crosses I saw across any League/Cup last season for Ismaila Sarr for the third Rennes goal as they beat Arsenal 3-1 in the Europa League.

Siliki would be an interesting option to have, because he's primarily a Centre-Mid, but he's also played Left-Wing and even Left-Back. As I've already talked about, Parker seems to want to play with "inside forwards" having Cavaleiro and Knockaert cutting in from the wing on their strong foot. With that in mind, signing a Centre-Mid like Siliki who can overlap down the left-hand side and put a cross in would be a very good option to have and would add another dimension to how we want to play as it's different to what Johansen can offer us.

Siliki is close to my ideal signing this summer. He's only just turned 23 so provides long-term value for us- and he's already a very good player. To give an idea of his "level" I've seen reports linking him with Porto and Celtic. He wouldn't be cheap by any means I've seen fees of 7-8m being talked about, but if we want a quality long-term replacement for Johansen we'll need to spend.

Adama Traore (Monaco)
No, not that one. There was cause for some amusement during AFCON when Mali kicked off their campaign with Adama Traore starting and Adama Traore on the bench. Even more so when both Adama Traore's scored as they beat Mauritania 4-1. Neither Adama Traore that featured for Mali that day is the Wolves Adama Traore, even though the Wolves Adama Traore is eligible for Mali. The Adama Traore I want started, scored and assisted in that game, whereas the other Adama Traore who funnily enough was subbed on for the Adama Traore I want only scored. Is that clear enough?

Traore would be more of a budget option than Siliki, but a good option to have nonetheless. Traore's clearly surplus to requirements at Monaco considering they sent him out on loan in January, and given he's going into the last year of his contract you would imagine he'd be available for a pretty cheap price. There's a player in Traore as well, he was tipped to have a very bright future when he was at Lille- so if we could help unlock some of that potential (which we very feasibly could seeing as he's only just turned 24) we'd have a good player on our hands.

Those are the four areas I'd like to see us make a signing in before the transfer window is closed. A right-sided Centre-Back, cover Left-Back and two Centre-Mids. One a replacement for McDonald and one as competition/a replacement for Johansen. For the record, if we were to be in the market for a Right-Back my choices haven't changed from my Summer Window Preview of Nazim Sangare or Falaye Sacko. However, as long as we keep Steven Sessegnon- I genuinely don't see the need to sign a Right-Back. We can't complain about wanting to see our kids get more chances like I saw a lot of when players like Kait and Thorsteinsson left in May- but then demand a new signing when we have I'd argue three good options for Right-Back in our academy in Cody Drameh, Marlon Fossey and Steven Sessegnon.

Outs
Ryan Sessegnon
It actually isn't that much of a surprise to me that Sessegnon's still a Fulham player at the time of writing. I'm still expecting Sessegnon to go, but it's just the way Daniel Levy does things really. The one thing I will say about Levy in that sense is the last time he tried to mess us around and get a deal out of us on "his" terms, neither side ended up really "winning" as Spurs missed out on signing Dembele and we ended up losing Dembele for a 500k development fee.

As I've already said, I'm still expecting Sessegnon to go- and frankly I don't even necessarily think he'd be a regular starter for us were he to stay given we've pretty much built a team with his departure in mind. If he got his Championship Player of the Year form back of course he would be, but based on last season and the fact he's starting this season with an injury he'd have an uphill battle.

My hope is we can get Sessegnon sold with time to spare in case we're relying on the Sessegnon money for incoming business. But with that said if Daniel Levy messes us around and then comes in with a low offer on Deadline Day out of principle I'd genuinely rather run the risk of losing Sessegnon on a free next summer to somewhere abroad than accept the offer. Because if Sessegnon's preference truly is Spurs we'd get a tribunal fee that wouldn't be significantly less than what Spurs are offering anyway. Worst comes to worst we can always sell The Cottage to ourselves to cover us for FFP after all.

Steven Sessegnon
It's not really clear if Steven Sessegnon is going to be part of any potential deal taking Ryan Sessegnon to Spurs. The rumours have varied throughout the summer. There was a bit of concern when the team for West Ham came out and he wasn't anywhere to be seen given he started against Brighton the week before and was seemingly going to be our first choice Right-Back going into the season. However, from what I've read he apparently had a knock so there isn't much to read into in that sense.

I'd be very disappointed if we did let Steven go, he could genuinely have a breakthrough season with us next season because the Right-Back position is definitely up for grabs. Add on the fact that he's contracted to us until 2022 it means we don't have any immediate "need" to let Steven follow his brother to Spurs. Unless we've attached a ridiculous value to Steven to cover Ryan's diminished value so the package for both ends up as 35-40m.

Cyrus Christie
Speaking of the Right-Back position being up for grabs, I still think there's a chance we move Cyrus Christie on this summer. Christie was in the Starting XI for what I'd call the "Cup team" for the friendly against Oxford rather than the two games against Premier League teams either side of it, which to me suggests he won't be first choice next season. With that in mind, given Christie's at an age where he'll be looking to play every week- if someone came in with a decent enough offer I'd be willing to accept.

I said most of what I had to say about Christie in my Summer Window Preview, so I'll just repeat that it's probably best for all parties that Christie moves on and gets a fresh start without the baggage of last season. But if we do decide to keep Christie and have him and S. Sessegnon as our two options for Right-Back I'd be largely fine with that.

Fabri
It's not a surprise to me that Fabri's still here. Simply for the fact that the Turkish and Spanish transfer windows still have another month to go. This is one thing I hate about the English window closing early, because Fabri's wages off the books and a potential transfer/loan fee could mean another signing comes in, or a higher calibre of signing comes in- but if he signs for someone on the 31st of August what good does that do us in the immediate term?

I'll add that I genuinely want to see Fabri as our #1 next season, but given he's played about 25 minutes throughout the whole of Pre-Season that doesn't seem particularly likely. It's mental to me though. Imagine if we went down with statistically the worst Keeper in the league last season (Bettinelli) and someone said we'd sign a Keeper who's played in the Champions League and Europa League, won the Turkish League, is recommended by a former Goalkeeper coach and Leeds (our nearest rivals for the title according to the bookies) supposedly wanted to sign in January before opting for Kiko Casilla.

And we're writing that player off based on two games (one being Spurs away) behind an absolutely shambolic defence at the start of last season. I've seen some people bring up his height as a negative, but he's the exact same height as Jordan Pickford who while slightly erratic at times is doing alright for himself. I haven't seen Fabri take a penalty though.

Ibrahima Cisse
I said this in my Summer Window Preview, Ranieri saw something in Cisse- because he got him properly involved in the first team squad and even started him above Seri and McDonald at the Emirates. So if Parker also sees something in him and wants to use him, then fair enough. The negative of AFCON being in the summer in that sense is we genuinely don't know how involved Cisse will be, as he's pretty much missed the whole of Pre-Season being away with Guinea. Without any informed knowledge, I'm assuming Cisse's off whether that be a loan or permanent.

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Aleksandar Mitrovic's new contract
When talking about summer business, it's only right to talk about the best bit of business we could have done all summer. The three players I was resigned to losing this summer were Seri, Sessegnon and Mitrovic, and if someone offered that we could keep Mitrovic at the expensive of losing Zambo I would have taken that deal any day of the week. As long as he stays fit, Mitrovic should be in the mix for top scorer in the league next season without a shadow of a doubt. Especially with the options we have either side of him and behind him with Tom Cairney.

My one slight reservation is that I'm not entirely convinced he suits how Scott Parker would ideally want to set his team up. Especially at Championship level Mitrovic is good to the point where you adapt to accommodate him, but I think in an ideal world Parker would prefer a more mobile, pressing Striker. That could perhaps be why he's only scored 1 goal under Parker to date including Pre-Season (and that was a penalty). He'll still score a bagful of goals next season because of how good he is, but I'm not entirely convinced Parker will get the absolute best out of him- and that could very well be his undoing during his time in charge.
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New Kit Reaction
The new kits have grown on me over the course of the month or so they've been public knowledge. I like the home kit for how simple it is, and I like the away kit just for how it looks. My one annoyance is the Adidas logo on the away kit is central rather than on the side.

I feel like I always end up talking about betting sponsors in this section, so I'll repeat what I always say. Betting companies as sponsors are quite literally where the money is. Bar the Top 6 in the Premier League who can attract other brands, almost every club has a betting sponsor for their shirt. Until betting companies on shirts are banned, it's stupid to not go with the sponsor we can get the most money out of. As long as the team wearing the kit are winning football matches I couldn't care less what's on it.

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The Season Ahead
It's definitely going to be an interesting season, I think that's a safe assumption. The signings we've made and the players we've kept have made our Top 2 ambition pretty clear, but the signings we are yet to make mean that Top 2 is just an ambition rather than an expectation at this stage in my opinion.

It might be a reflection of my opinion of Scott Parker as a manager, but I'm very wary of the fact that we could become the flat-track bullies of the league next season- similar to West Brom last season. In that we could turn around one day when everything clicks and beat someone 8-1, but we could also end up having some pretty heavy defeats and the season could ultimately end in disappointment. With the quality of players we have, Top 6 is the absolute minimum for us this season- but whether or not we can push for Top 2 is dependant on our transfer business over this next week as well as how well Scott Parker can get us playing. The only thing to say on both of those points is "time will tell".

It's interesting for Scott Parker, because he's in a bit of a no-win situation in my opinion. If we do manage to go back up then it's "well obviously Fulham went up, they signed Knockaert and Cavaleiro and kept Mitrovic". And then if we don't it'll be "how has Scott Parker managed to not get promoted with Knockaert, Cavaleiro and Mitrovic up-front".

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Predictions
You may have seen my Championship prediction I posted on Twitter if you follow me, and as Fulham are involved in it I think it's worth repeating here.
I've predicted;
1st. Cardiff
2nd. West Brom
3rd. Leeds
4th. Fulham
5th. Stoke
6th. Brentford

I should say this is based on the players the clubs have as of writing this, because if Brentford lose Benrahma and/or Maupay then things would change. But as of writing this, that's my Top 6 prediction for the season with Leeds beating Brentford and us beating Stoke before Leeds beat us at Wembley.

Regardless of what happens, I'm looking forward to a new season of ups and hopefully significantly less downs. Depending on how much business we do between now and the deadline I might be back for a Transfer Window Review, but in the meantime thanks for reading as always. I always enjoy doing these blogs, so hopefully you enjoy reading them. Thanks again for reading, and let's make this season a good one.