Thursday 4 August 2016

Fulham v Newcastle Preview: Baptism By Fire

Hello! That's right, Football is officially back! It's been an interesting summer from a Fulham, Football and general world perspective- but now all of the talking can stop and we can jump into a new season. I was going to open by saying "there's not going to be a harder game than this", or words to that effect- but I'd be lying if I did so. Because tomorrow night isn't going to be the hardest game we have this season, it's the second hardest- the hardest being Newcastle away in Mid-March when they'll presumably be trying to get themselves over the line in-terms of promotion/the title. I don't think there's a "good" time to be playing Newcastle this season, but playing them tomorrow while they're still working out the kinks in the team and while players aren't at their peak levels in-terms of match fitness can't really be considered a bad time.

Seeing as there's not really much in the way of news from a Fulham perspective, I've had to really dig to try and find something. Not much has been made of it, but we've actually sold one of our fringe players called Ross McCormack to Villa. In all seriousness though, I pretty much covered my general opinion on McCormack in the Season Preview I put up on Monday so if you want my full in-depth thoughts on it you can read them here (https://t.co/B4t1AcOCSI). However, the condensed version is that losing McCormack isn't the end of the world in my opinion. I'd rather take the 12 Million we've got from McCormack and invest the money into players that'll fit Slavisa's system and crucially actually want to be here than keep McCormack and give him his 4th and 5th Fulham contracts this summer and next January. Also, I hope the Club Shop didn't over stock on number 4's for shirt printing.

On the other transfers front, there's not been a lot of stuff- especially with Strikers where the attention will obviously need to be. The news came out yesterday that we're signing Jozabed from Rayo Vallecano, and as with my transfer "analysis" in my Season Preview I'm not going to claim I know stuff about him that I simply don't. I will say, based on his stats last season in a team that didn't exactly perform well- he looks to be a pretty good signing for us.

I'm curious as to where he'd fit in the team, because I thought this season would be Cairney's chance to play in his best role which is that of a #10. From what I can understand, Jozabed's not necessarily a #10- but he's definitely more attack than defence-minded. So we could end up in a situation where we're almost entirely reliant on Kevin McDonald to protect the back four.

I think the Eddy Silvestre deal is meant to be close, so that's another Midfielder being brought in- and I'd assume our Midfield business will be done after these two signings because Midfield isn't exactly an area we need to keep strengthening at this stage. The areas we need to be looking at improving in the next month, for me, is another Centre-Back, ideally two Strikers and a Left-Back.

If you want my general thoughts on all of our confirmed transfers both in and out, I covered them all in-depth in my Season Preview. But for now, let's see how our new signings will fit into the team tomorrow night by discussing our team selection.

The Goalkeeper selection is actually going to be quite interesting, because as I discussed in my Season Preview with Joronen's performance against Palace- we've got 3 Keepers who can all be properly considered for selection. While I don't think Joronen playing will happen, and chances are we'll loan him out- he did himself a world of good with his performance against Palace. It's definitely more likely that Button starts, because to be blunt- we wouldn't have actually spent money on getting a second choice Keeper the way we're doing business. I'd expect Button to start tomorrow, and keep his run going in the league until he gives Slavisa a reason to think otherwise- while Bettinelli starts his season at Brisbane Road next Tuesday.

The Centre-Back situation, at least for tomorrow night is fairly straight-forward in my opinion. If Mitrovic (I nearly typed Mitroglou there) wasn't suspended, I'd have a lot more concern when it comes to the Tomas Kalas/Michael Madl pairing and their physicality and general stature. The only real worry I've got when it comes to the Kalas/Madl pairing for tomorrow's game is if there's a lapse of concentration at any point in the game we will be punished given the quality Newcastle have got going forward even without Mitrovic. But I don't think Kalas and Madl will be overwhelmed from a physical perspective by Dwight Gayle and Ayoze Perez- especially with Perez playing more of a #10 role based on Newcastle's Pre-Season.

The Full-Backs, specifically Left-Back will be one of the more interesting decisions that Slavisa has to make for tomorrow night. Ryan Sessegnon hasn't really put a foot wrong in Pre-Season. I was really interested to see how he coped against Palace, because while Palace are still a bit of a way off from the start of their season- Sessegnon was still put up against Andros Townsend. On the whole I thought he did really well against him, and personally I really hope he starts tomorrow night- where hopefully he can keep Matt Ritchie contained. At least until Fredericks is fit and Odoi can move back over to Left-Back, I'd prefer signing a better Left-Back whether that's a loan or permanent- or just giving Sessegnon a proper chance in the First-Team.

The alternative if Slavisa wants a more "experienced" player is to start Scott Malone- and despite his "reputation" I'm not writing him off. Just in-terms of personal preference I'd rather Sessegnon started tomorrow. The Right-Back spot will be occupied by Denis Odoi as was the case against Palace. Basically, in-terms of the defence keep it the same as with was against Palace.

I'm working on the basis of Slavisa playing a 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1 for tomorrow, because again that's what he played against Palace. I don't think there's a question as to whether Kevin McDonald starts, and it's more about who plays with him in the middle of the pitch. The options are Scott Parker, Ryan Tunnicliffe and Lasse Vigen Christensen. The key to any success or failure we have tomorrow night is likely dependant on the level to which we can contain Jonjo Shelvey. As such, I'd prefer to be starting Parker- and make it his job to just continuously press Shelvey all game long. I wouldn't expect Parker to go 90 Minutes tomorrow in said role, but after 60 Minutes we can bring Tunnicliffe on and have him do the exact same job.

I don't think there's much debate to be had as far as wingers go, for the simple fact that with the George Williams loan we've not really got much in the way of competition. The debate is more about who plays where, as opposed to if someone's going to play. Floyd Ayitè should be starting out on the left, I think that's a settled debate. I'm absolutely desperate for Tom Cairney to be played as a #10 this season. Especially in these early stages of the season where everyone isn't completely match fit, pace can be a big asset.

With that in mind, I say I want Aluko to be played on the right-wing with Tom Cairney playing centrally behind the striker. I know Aluko played as a #10 behind Smith against Palace, and did a good job of it as well- but I want pace on the wings and our most creative player in his preferred position. Surely that's not too much to ask? I'm not saying I want that to be a fixed selection for the entire season, and the introduction to the squad of Jozabed will obviously be another option. But for tomorrow, I think we're best served playing Aluko out wide.

With McCormack's departure confirmed, if he was even in consideration for selection tomorrow given his fitness issues at the start of every season- he's not now. That leaves us with a choice between Matt Smith & Cauley Woodrow (and Aluko of course but he's in another position in my selection). It's not ideal is it? Ideally we'd have had a Striker signing lined up and all but confirmed so when McCormack had left we could instantly get a replacement in- but that's obviously not the case. I'd lean more towards starting Woodrow tomorrow, because despite some of his short-comings he's infinitely more mobile than Smith- and he's actually looked pretty good in Pre-Season. While Pre-Season isn't an indicator as to how someone will perform in a competitive season, he's probably gotten some confidence so we might as well see how he gets on.

Then as with what I was saying for a lot of last season, we can bring Smith on with 15-20 minutes left to change the dynamic of our attacking line if needed. Whether that's a straight swap with Woodrow or changing to something along the lines of a 4-4-2 with Aluko or Ayité making runs in behind for Smith's knock downs.

Team for Newcastle

It's likely a dream, especially with the McCormack sale being announced today- but I'd hope that our fans wouldn't go overboard if we do lose tomorrow. As I've already said, tomorrow night is literally the second hardest game of the season on paper heading into the season. Given the fact we're still making signings and generally trying to gel an almost entirely new squad, I'm willing to be patient up to a point. At least at this stage of the window. If I'm sat here doing my Deadline Day Live Blog and we haven't brought in a Striker then I'll happily start bashing those involved at the club. But to be blunt, there's not really much point in doing so right now.

I talked about my general expectations for the season in my Season Preview, but to add on to what I said in the Preview. I said at the start of last season that I didn't want any excuses when it comes to losing points early on in the season. Which is pretty much exactly the opposite of what I've just said, and I do realise that.

My thing is, I don't think many (if any) people will be expecting us to win tomorrow. But aside from tomorrow night I'd say the vast majority of our first 10 games could be classed as "winnable". So despite what I've said about the team gelling etc. depending on the number of points we pick up between tomorrow night and the end of September I may yet end up ranting like I've seen various members of the posters on Friends of Fulham do already. Just quickly skimming through the games between tomorrow and the end of September I'd estimate we should be picking up roughly 12-13 Points. That points total based on last seasons table will put us roughly where I'd expect us to finish, which is basically as Mid-Table as we could possibly be. So if we exceed that, then I'm happy.

I said it at the start of my Season Preview but I'll repeat it here as well- these Previews aren't going to happen for every game. The simple fact is that they end up becoming quite repetitive, but equally the Previews aren't completely off the table depending on what's going on and who we're playing. The Reviews will continue, although they'll be quite patchy in August. Then I'm also going to try and do some more Fulham posts beyond Previews and Reviews. For those of you who don't know, for weekend games I aim to put the Reviews up at 8pm and for Midweek (or Friday) games I aim for Midnight.

So hopefully you'll keep coming back to these posts throughout the season, starting tomorrow night for the Newcastle Review which will hopefully have some positive stuff contained within it. In the meantime, hopefully you're looking forward to the new season and some degree of success after the last few years. Thanks for reading as always. We've only got 1 more day to wait now.

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